道路甩挂运输系统安全水平评价

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1002-0268.2015.06.023

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摘要 This study aims to analyze the system security level of drop and pull transport at the level of our current policy and technology. A highway drop and pull transport system is divided into sub-systems according to risk factors. A causal relationship model was developed between the sub-systems and system safety level of drop and pull transport, and the causal feedback loop was analyzed. A system dynamics flow diagram model was established, and simulation analysis was conducted. Results show that the drop and pull transport system security level is 81.673 7 in 2013 and 89.461 3 in 2015. This rank is considered acceptable. The result also indicates that the system security level remains relatively low even with the improvement of organization scheduling, safety technical standard, and policy environment. However, the system security level will improve gradually with time. Security is needed to strengthen safety management in the early stage of development. An analysis of the sensitivity of sub-systems indicates that the policy environment and tractor safety technology level influence the overall system security level of drop and pull transport. Therefore, related policies and rules should be improved as soon as possible. Investments for the safety of drop and pull vehicles should also be increased to promote the safe and rapid development of drop and pull transport.

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	作者相关文章
	赵鲁华
	曹庆贵
	李玉善
	任传祥

关键词 ： traffic engineering, highway drop and pull transport system, system dynamics, security level, models, simulation

Abstract：This study aims to analyze the system security level of drop and pull transport at the level of our current policy and technology. A highway drop and pull transport system is divided into sub-systems according to risk factors. A causal relationship model was developed between the sub-systems and system safety level of drop and pull transport, and the causal feedback loop was analyzed. A system dynamics flow diagram model was established, and simulation analysis was conducted. Results show that the drop and pull transport system security level is 81.673 7 in 2013 and 89.461 3 in 2015. This rank is considered acceptable. The result also indicates that the system security level remains relatively low even with the improvement of organization scheduling, safety technical standard, and policy environment. However, the system security level will improve gradually with time. Security is needed to strengthen safety management in the early stage of development. An analysis of the sensitivity of sub-systems indicates that the policy environment and tractor safety technology level influence the overall system security level of drop and pull transport. Therefore, related policies and rules should be improved as soon as possible. Investments for the safety of drop and pull vehicles should also be increased to promote the safe and rapid development of drop and pull transport.

Key words： traffic engineering highway drop and pull transport system system dynamics security level models simulation

收稿日期: 2015-04-25

基金资助:Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51474138)

通讯作者: ZHAO Lu-hua,E-mail address:luhuazhao@163.com E-mail: luhuazhao@163.com

引用本文:

赵鲁华, 曹庆贵, 李玉善, 任传祥. 道路甩挂运输系统安全水平评价[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2016, 10(1): 98-103.
ZHAO Lu-hua, CAO Qing-gui, LI Yu-shan, REN Chuan-xiang. Assessment of the System Security Level of Highway Drop and Pull Transport. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2016, 10(1): 98-103.

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http://manu27.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_gljtkj_en/CN/10.3969/j.issn.1002-0268.2015.06.023 或 http://manu27.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_gljtkj_en/CN/Y2016/V10/I1/98

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