互通式立交车辆分流行为概率模型

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摘要 Choice-making in diverging in an interchange is affected by multiple external factors. Along with an analysis of the characteristics of drivers' choice-making in expressway interchanges, this study settles many other fundamental variables, including the selection tree, utility function, speed of vehicles on the main line, accelerated speed, hourly traffic volume of the ramp, time headway in the deceleration lane, and type of vehicle, etc. The two-level nested-logit probability model for drivers accepting ramp diverging and drivers' diverging choice behaviors modes is established. Based on the radar tracking data of part of diverging areas of interchanges in Guanghe expressway, the model parameters are estimated by the phased estimation method.According to t-test result, the influence degree of the characteristic variables is judged and the model is optimized. Results suggest that the choice behaviors of diverging at interchange is affected by multiple factors comprehensively, the two-layer nested logit probability model is featured by a higher prediction accuracy.

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	潘兵宏
	严考权
	高健强
	赖泓志
	余英杰

关键词 ： traffic engineering, diverging choice behavior, nested-logit probability model, interchange, prediction

Abstract：Choice-making in diverging in an interchange is affected by multiple external factors. Along with an analysis of the characteristics of drivers' choice-making in expressway interchanges, this study settles many other fundamental variables, including the selection tree, utility function, speed of vehicles on the main line, accelerated speed, hourly traffic volume of the ramp, time headway in the deceleration lane, and type of vehicle, etc. The two-level nested-logit probability model for drivers accepting ramp diverging and drivers' diverging choice behaviors modes is established. Based on the radar tracking data of part of diverging areas of interchanges in Guanghe expressway, the model parameters are estimated by the phased estimation method.According to t-test result, the influence degree of the characteristic variables is judged and the model is optimized. Results suggest that the choice behaviors of diverging at interchange is affected by multiple factors comprehensively, the two-layer nested logit probability model is featured by a higher prediction accuracy.

Key words： traffic engineering diverging choice behavior nested-logit probability model interchange prediction

收稿日期: 2017-03-17

基金资助:Supported by the Key Technology to Interchange of Dense Road Network in Pearl River Delta(No.Science-2013-02-059)

通讯作者: PAN Bing-hong E-mail: 409291838@qq.com

引用本文:

潘兵宏, 严考权, 高健强, 赖泓志, 余英杰. 互通式立交车辆分流行为概率模型[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2018, 12(2): 104-110.
PAN Bing-hong, YAN Kao-quan, GAO Jian-qiang, LAI Hong-zhi, YU Ying-jie. Behavior Probability Model of Interchange Vehicle Diverging. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2018, 12(2): 104-110.

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http://manu27.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_gljtkj_en/CN/ 或 http://manu27.magtech.com.cn/Jwk_gljtkj_en/CN/Y2018/V12/I2/104

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