基于机动车政策的城市交通可持续发展建模研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.002-0268.2015.06.022

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摘要 A system dynamics (SD) model of the sustainable development of urban transport is built with vehicle development policy considered as the regulating factor. Moreover, an empirical study is conducted using SD and integrating environmental factors. Results show that (1) policy intervention influences the indicators of vehicle possession, gross domestic production, total population, and pollution index of NO₂; and (2) strict restrictions on vehicles can effectively relieve traffic congestion, reduce the percentage of vehicle travel and trips, and urge people to shift from private to public transport. Policy intervention also improves the service level of public transport. The negative effect of urban transport development on the environment can be reduced. A restriction policy on vehicle possession should be implemented. Moreover, research, development, and promotion of effective energy-saving measures and emission-reducing technologies are needed to reduce energy consumption and emissions from vehicles.

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	张毅
	张丽
	郑朝成
	朱晓东

关键词 ： traffic engineering, sustainable mobility, system dynamics, urban transport, policy

Abstract：A system dynamics (SD) model of the sustainable development of urban transport is built with vehicle development policy considered as the regulating factor. Moreover, an empirical study is conducted using SD and integrating environmental factors. Results show that (1) policy intervention influences the indicators of vehicle possession, gross domestic production, total population, and pollution index of NO₂; and (2) strict restrictions on vehicles can effectively relieve traffic congestion, reduce the percentage of vehicle travel and trips, and urge people to shift from private to public transport. Policy intervention also improves the service level of public transport. The negative effect of urban transport development on the environment can be reduced. A restriction policy on vehicle possession should be implemented. Moreover, research, development, and promotion of effective energy-saving measures and emission-reducing technologies are needed to reduce energy consumption and emissions from vehicles.

Key words： traffic engineering sustainable mobility system dynamics urban transport policy

收稿日期: 2015-06-18

基金资助:Supported by the Jiangsu Province Transportation Science and Technology Project (NO.2013N02-3); the University Philosophy and Social Sciences Fund project in Jiangsu Province (NO.2012SJB630032)

通讯作者: ZHANG Yi, E-mail:zy@jscd.gov.cn E-mail: zy@jscd.gov.cn

引用本文:

张毅, 张丽, 郑朝成, 朱晓东. 基于机动车政策的城市交通可持续发展建模研究[J]. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2015, 9(4): 78-84.
ZHANG Yi, ZHANG Li, ZHENG Chao-cheng, ZHU Xiao-dong. Modeling Analysis of the Sustainable Development of Urban Traffic Based on Vehicle Policy. Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development, 2015, 9(4): 78-84.

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